Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
written by: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
performed by: Joel Richards
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
UNABRIDGED (9 hrs and 31 mins)
Ratings: 4.1 (11 ratings)